A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
